I just got an email from an acquaintance who probably watches way too much TV and/or Internet news. She sent me a link to an article forecasting a new wave of foreclosures. Maybe. Maybe not. But here is what I am seeing, at least in Bend Oregon real estate. I hate to be an optimist in the market we have experienced in the past 3 1/2 years (has it been THAT long??!!), but I think we can finally be cautiously optimistic.
So what follows is my response to her. Feel free to email me your thoughts on the subject. I would love to hear them.
Thanks for the update. The facts in our market are that our inventory has shrunk to extremely low levels, like about 2 months' supply in some price points. We still have buyers. Our company has had increased sales figures every month for the past several months, and November is my best month in I can't remember how long.
Deschutes County is the fastest growing county in Oregon at about 3 1/2%, which is sluggish compared to past years, but it is encouraging. Unemployment still is awful, but projections over the next few years are excellent. But projections are just that, projections. The increase in population is from both in-migration and from increase in current population (babies, family members joining current residents).
Interest rates remain at historically low levels at about 4 7/8%.
My recent sales are some cash buyers and some financing their purchase, some buyers moving from other areas (Carlsbad, Utah, Carmel, Vegas) as well as current residents moving up or moving to Bend from other Central Oregon towns. In-migrating people are moving because of family in our area and/or quality of life.
So I know the bad and the ugly. I know that the new foreclosures are people who did NOT have subprime loans but simply have become unemployed or underemployed and that we may see new foreclosures to add to the current ones. By the way, I am seeing more mortgage modifications coming through, which is great. Those homes will not come on the market now.
If you are waiting to buy in Central Oregon because you feel our market will further deteriorate, you may well be right. I can only tell you from my perspective that inventory (supply) is way down and buyers (demand) continue to want to buy homes, some first-time homebuyers and some move-up or moving from elsewhere. So that is my two cents (or maybe a full quarter's worth!) from the inside, national news be as it may.